1 month ago
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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin May average return: +7.78% historically.
- 2026 May currently sits at +2.63%.
- Bear market Mays: -15.6% in 2022, -18.99% in 2018.
- August median return across all years: -7.49%.
- September average return: -3.08% across all cycles.
- Weak May years consistently bled into Q3.
May Has Two Personalities, And 2026 Is Showing the Wrong One
The Coinglass monthly returns table going back to 2013 shows May averaging +7.78% across all cycles. That number is accurate and nearly useless on its own. It blends 2019’s +52.38%, 2017’s +52.71%, and 2024’s +11.07% with 2022’s -15.6% and 2021’s -35.31%. The average flatters the month. The distribution is what matters.
May splits cleanly into two categories. Strong May years, double-digit gains or better, occurred during confirmed bull cycles: 2017, 2019, 2024, 2025. Weak or negative May years occurred ...
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